Kashmir Affairs - Security & Conflict Analysis of Kashmir

Why are you secretive about your visit?
(Laughs) It was not a planned visit. I was in Delhi for some professional engagements, and had a two day break, which I considered apt to enjoy in Srinagar. That’s why I preferred to keep it private.

What are your impressions during the maiden visit?
I was fascinated by the natural beauty here, but stunned to see the huge troop presence which gives the city look of a garrison. It seems that the political disturbance is overshadowing everything else. Like the journalism students of the Kashmir University whom I met, people are passionate and sentimental about Kashmir. People are keen about internal situation of Pakistan. Even though I found people still affectionate about Pakistan, but I think Kashmiris want to be free from both India and Pakistan. Also Musharraf is being tremendously admired for his peace initiatives. I will tell all this to him when I meet him.

What transpired in your interaction with Mirwaiz and Mufti?
I found both worried about the current political crisis in Pakistan, because they believe that has closed down the peace process. I asked them about the coming assembly elections. I think they look toward Pakistan situation to define their roles.

India cites the reason of Pakistan’s political instability for the breakdown in the dialogue process.
I don’t believe the current Pakistan situation should derail the peace process. Its true Musharraf’s survival is at stake, but he has the required authority to continue the process, but India has put breaks on a lame excuse. India owns the responsibility for the current dialogue logjam. Musharraf is trying some political alliances which will strengthen his position. So resuming talks with Musharraf would not go futile.

What are the implications of a Musharraf-Benazir alliance?
Pakistan needs such an alliance. If they forge a five-year power sharing agreement, it will tremendously improve the India-Pakistan relations and also Musharraf’s initiatives on Kashmir will move forward. Because, Benazir too is a staunch supporter of India-Pak friendship.

What are the success prospects of their alliance?
There are certain compelling factors which will force them to form a permanent alliance. Both need each other for their survival. If Mushrraf wouldn’t have reconciled with Benazir at this juncture, he would have gone. And in Musharraf’s absence, the Punjabi-dominated Pakistan army would have favoured Nawaz Sharief. Besides the army, the Pakistan establishment including judges, media and bureaucracy is dominated by Punjabis which is a natural constituency of Nawaz. Benazir has learnt by past experiences that the Pakistan establishment is against her Sindhi-led PPP. Since 1972 till date, PPP in 34 years could only rule for a mere seven years despite clear majority thrice. They were overthrown by the establishment. The day Benazir leaves Musharraf that will end his survival. If Mushrraf doesn’t form an alliance with Benazir, she would ally with Nawaz and both will impeach him in a day’s time. Thus both are inter-dependent. So even if we will see occasional brawls between the two, they can’t afford to break the imminent alliance.

Some see a US hand in the deal?
Yes, this is the first time the US has intervened so palpably in Pakistan affairs. The US forced and facilitated the Musharraf-Benazir agreement, albeit behind the curtain. And the US has obtained guarantees from both of decent behaviour toward each other.

Is it true that a section of the Pakistan establishment still supports Jihadis?
See, the situation in Waziristan is mainly because of the follies of Pakistani and the US army and not the establishment. However, the coalition between Al-Qaida and Jihadis has support from a section of the establishment. In the absence of Pakistan support, the Jihadis and extremists leagued with Al-Qaida and Taliban type groups. In my view, the basic problem in Pakistan is the network of Al-Qaida, Taliban and sectarian extremists. This anti-moderation network is anti-Musharraf, anti-Benazir, anti-India and anti-US.

Why have you entered into a consistent confrontation with the Mullahs?
I believe that among all militancies, the religious militancy has ravaged Pakistan. The scourge of sectarianism has made minorities to feel threatened. Al-Qaida, Taliban and other Jihadis have made Pakistan their abode. For any terrorist activity across world, blame comes on Pakistan. We are disdained as the epicentre of terrorism. Such impressions about Pakistan have been created by religious extremists. We are a small country at a sensitive and strategic location, if we don’t change this complexion of our country, all the world powers will base in Pakistan. We will be ruined. So I am deadly against religious militancy.

October 2007