Kashmir Affairs - Security & Conflict Analysis of Kashmir

Mumbai Bombings: Consequences for Kashmir
Fozia Nazir Lone
14 January 2009

The atrocity perpetrated in the Bombay blasts killing 175 innocent people and injuring many hundreds is without any reservation condemned and my heartfelt sympathies are extended to the bereaved families and the nation of India. This four day ordeal started on 25 November 2008 and left the whole world feeling distraught and mortified. At least 10 unidentified gunmen were involved in attacking Mumbai, targeting iconic hotels - Taj Mahal & Oberai; Leopold Cafe; Jewish Centre; railway station and a hospital. India and Pakistan has had more than their share of the escalating menace of terrorism. The Delhi attack in September 2008 killing 26; Ahmadabad bombing in July 2008 leaving 57 dead; Samjhauta Express, the India-Pakistan friendship train bombing in February 2007 killing 66 innocent people. Likewise in Pakistan assassination of Benazir Bhutto in December 2007 and the bombing of Marriott hotel (Islamabad) in September 2008 are only some of the poignant events that are haunting human conscience and foreshadowing uncertain times in the region.

The Mumbai Massacre still remains under investigation albeit initial account supports the presumption that Pakistani based terrorist group Lashkar-e-Taiba (LT) which, is also banned by Pakistan was involved. The LT was set up by Inter-Services Intelligence, in the 1980s to fight a proxy war in Kashmir. LT is also an important part of United Jihad Council (UJC) formed in 1994 which is a coalition of the combatant militant forces to coordinate their activities in the region. The UJC controlled most of the militant group’s active in the Kargil War between India and Pakistan in 1999. The statement by Professor Andrew Silke (Expert on Terrorism, University of East London) and the Indian follow up statements on the tragedy suggests that LT was involved in Mumbai and that it has an implicit link with the Kashmir conflict. Even the news agency Reuters as published in Herald Tribune implies that the militants during the siege of Jewish Centre in Mumbai called a television channel in India and stated: Are you aware how many people have been killed in Kashmir?
The suggested connection of the Kashmir conflict with Mumbai blasts has two prong consequences. Firstly, an inevitable sequel of Mumbai incident has been more repression on people of Kashmir with increased incidence of military frisking, searches and arbitrary arrests consistent with a brutal tendency to punish Kashmiris for an offence they have not committed. This incident has plunged India and Pakistan back into the internecine Cold War, rupturing the tenuous peace process between the two countries and bringing all peace progress in the State to a standstill. The natural response to mutual overtones over this issue has also become a source of extracting a political leverage to halt peace negotiations on the future of Kashmir and maintain status quo to the detriment of people of State. Mumbai bombing has sent tremors across Kashmir where people are on a cliff-hanger waiting for some progress on peace process. As a consequence of this incident the confidence building measures will revert back to exchange of rejoinders and maximalist policies adopted by both sides from time of the inception of this dispute in 1947. During this time the British decamped from the region securing peace process to the Indo-Pakistani nemesis in the mountains.

The second corollary of Mumbai blasts is not only grave but dangerous i.e. link of LT with Al-Qaeda. As we are aware, Al-Qaeda, is a loose network of multinational fundamentalist terrorist organisation whose goal seems to associate likeminded Muslim extremist groups throughout the world into a brand of ‘radical network’ to drive out non-Muslim and / or Western authority and their supporters from Muslim regions of the world. This Holy War from their perspective seems to be accomplished if they strike in the name of regions like Kashmir where Muslims are oppressed by non-Muslims. It is well know that Al-Qaeda has intervened in past where the Muslim populations were repressed by non-Muslims and this is at least what Jihadi fundamentalism suggests. Therefore, Al-Qaeda simply finds it attractive to act in Muslim conflict-ridden areas. For example, in Kosovo, clear evidence was collected by the US military advisers that groups fighting under KLA in Kosovo were financed by Al-Qaeda, before NATO’s intervention. Likewise, the Macedonian intelligence has also claimed that Al-Qaeda was providing support to KLA and that its members were trained in Afghanistan. How real could therefore the assumption be that the ‘arc of extremism’ is travelling toward the east into Kashmir, a trekking distance from Afghanistan? People of Kashmir are known as a beacon of secularism and eschew extremism but they require assistance to rescue them from violence and abuse perpetrated against them.

In the light of these sinister developments today, Kashmir crisis demands a more concrete response from the International Community (IC) that have a standing legal policy to urge both countries to resolve the Kashmir conflict. Today, IC must come to see gravity of ominous political situation in the region and hidden multilateral dangers of status quo, which is their present foreign policy on Kashmir. It is imperative that the IC must change their foreign policy on Kashmir and attend to the cause rather than focusing on the consequences of disasters that plague the region like the Mumbai bombing. The response of the IC should be to denounce the policy of status quo on the Kashmir question as it has produced no results after 61 years. The matter is exactly where it was in 1947 and the two countries are still vying for the territory of Kashmir. After protracted inept peace efforts and bilateralism, one incident like Mumbai blasts can wipe out all progress made in that direction. Every time there is a terror attack, particularly in India, there is a rushed finger pointing exercise and the peace process on Kashmir is the first item on hold.

In order to prevent hijacking of the Kashmir question in future by Al-Qaeda, who may find Kashmir a soft spot and strike in its name, the IC must treat Kashmir as an alert, which requires an urgent action. If there is no holy cause left for LT or Al-Qaeda, there will be no chance for them to spread extremism. The recent proposal of US-elect President Barrack Obama on Kashmir suggested to appoint former US President Bill Clinton as special envoy to assist resolution of Kashmir question seems to be a welcome sign. Obama said, we should try to facilitate a better understanding between India and Pakistan and try to resolve the Kashmir crisis so that Pakistan can stay focused not on India, but on the situation with those militants. It is clear that he was suggesting Al-Qaeda and Taliban.

To paraphrase, today, the International Community must see Kashmir a threat to international peace and security and that status quo and bilateralism now seems to be counterproductive and an anachronistic approach than it was before the flare-up of terrorism on the world scene. My doctoral thesis has made a clear connection of unsolved festering Kashmir question with potential growth of Al-Qaeda type of terrorism in the region. Relegating peace process in the hands of the protagonists and bilateral resolutions have not worked, therefore it is proposed that an international body is needed to control the peace process over Kashmir between India and Pakistan as there is a problem within their system of antithetical perceptions ingrained against each other. All parties will need to settle on a democratic peace with justice paradigm for the people of Kashmir. The benefits are immeasurable to consider an end to hostility and terrorism as a bonus. India having successfully consummated peace in Kashmir can redeploy their huge armies in places where pockets of terrorism emerge and Pakistan similarly on its western borders with Afghanistan. A stable and peaceful South Asia with the Kashmir dispute solved will be a great contender at the threshold of the greater western policy of ‘war against terror’ in the region.