Kashmir Affairs - Security & Conflict Analysis of Kashmir

Balraj Puri
Author and Political Activist

Murtaza Shibli

A well known author and writer, Balraj Puri is from Jammu, the Dogra heartland. He has recently updated his well known book ‘Kashmir: Towards Insurgency’ to the current realities in Jammu and Kashmir. The book with its revised title ‘Kashmir: Insurgency and After’ is published by Orient Longman Private Limited, New Delhi, India.

How do you rate the current India Pakistan peace process?
The current phase in the India Pakistan peace process is inevitably affected by the continuous turmoil in Pakistan for the last almost one year. Till a stable government is formed which can confidently take a position on a vital issue like Kashmir, the process cannot be continued. Otherwise, too, final solution was not so easy to arrive. No government in India, much less a coalition government led by Manmohan Singh can easily take a decision which compromises Indian sovereignty over Kashmir. Moreover, the lackconsensus within the valley itself, not to speak of between diverse ethnic and religious communities on the Indian side as also on the Pakistan side of the state, is a bigin finding a solution.

In any case however slow the peace process may be and in spite of all the obstacles in its way, it is qualitative a far better situation than recurrent wars and tensions between the two countries. The abnormally cordial relation between the two countries for the last four years is a welcoming development.

This peace process has failed to show any visible impact on the ground in Kashmir. What do you think is the reason?
Regarding the reason for lack of visible impact on the ground, firstly I do not think there is no impact. Political parties are actively and freely. There is an upsurge of emotional affinity between people across LOC, in particular, in Jammu region and Azad J&K, after the opening of traffic, though limited and subject to many restrictions. However, much more needs to be done. The reason for it not happening is implied in my comments in number 1.

PM Manmohan Singh last year promised ‘zero tolerance’ on human rights abuses, but that did not happen. What do u think are the reasons and what were the implications of the failure of ‘zero tolerance’ promise?
Human Rights abuses now provoke much louder protests, including by mainstream (pro-India) parties and even by ministers and are taken more seriously by State Human Rights Commission, investigation agencies and Courts. More needs to be done to reform police and curb draconian laws like AFSPA. I didtake initiative in visiting every victim of human rights violations and invite leading personalities of Indian civil society in the early nineties. Local cooperation gradually started declining. I was once frankly told in a meeting of the Hurriyat that by taking up the issue of human rights violations I was diverting the attention of the people from the freedom movement. Moreover local leaders declined to criticize the mass killing of civilians by the militants. The later phase of militants killed people for their political or religious beliefs, which to my mind is no less violation of human rights.

What is your opinion about Musharraf’s demilitarisation plan and subsequent Indian refusal?
Musharraf’s four point formula was never officially communicated to the government of India and was never officially rejected. I, however, welcomed some features of it. When the Pakistan government officially excluded Kashmir from joint anti-terror operations, agreed upon by the two governments after the Mumbai series blasts, the case of demilitarization was weakened. Even the Prime Minister of Pakistan administered J&K had said that it was a distant goal after the other three points of the formula were discussed and implemented.

Has militant resistance failed in Kashmir?
Militancy has obviously lost much of its strength and popular involvement. People have paid too heavy price and are in no mood to pay more.

What are the chances of the resurgence of militant resistance if the current peace process fails to solve the Kashmir issue?
That does not imply that popular alienation has ended. If no positive steps are taken to reduce it and allowed to grow, it may take the form of struggle. But not necessarily in the form of armed struggle.

What is the best solution for Kashmir in the given circumstances?
The best solution should be evolved after a thorough dialogue between different regions and ethnic and religious communities, firstly about the internal system in the state that could reconcile their divergent urges and interests. Only after that they would be able to discuss and try to evolve a consensus on the external status of the state.

The ‘roundtable’ meetings with the Hurriyat leaders and the Indian government have stopped without any tangible progress. Has the initial hope been lost?
Much more important than a dialogue between the Hurriyat leaders and the Indian government is dialogue between the leaders within Kashmir Valley and with leaders of the other regions of the state. JKLF groups, Geelani group, Jamati-e-Islami and a number of small groups have no dialogue with the Hurriyat (M). Even Hurriyat has yet not disclosed its full road map despite many promises. And none of them has any support among the non-Kashmiri speaking communities who outnumber the Kashmiri speaking community.

Kashmir seems to have been forgotten by the world. What do you think could be the reasons and is Kashmir no more a ‘nuclear flash point’?
Kashmir is no more on the international agenda, particularly since 9/11 whenworld started to focus much more attention on terrorism in Pakistan.

The Indian Army in Kashmir issues political statements. Do you think it is taking active interest in politics and perhaps getting some inspiration from the Pakistani army?
I do not think the army should issue statements on political issues. But it can elaborate or reiterate settled policy issues. In no case is the Indian army capable of replicating Pakistan’s army. The Indian institutions of checks and balances seem powerful enough for the army to not exceed its limit.

March 2008