Editor: Murtaza Shibli

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India’s Last Chance is Lost

Nayeema Ahmad Mahjoor


In the changing political landscape of Pakistan, it would be foolish for India to assume that the Kashmir movement has died down or become irrelevant. So far as Pakistan is concerned, Kashmir has become linked to its very existence and it is unlikely that it will allow its investment in the issue to go to waste simply because of internal problems.

Although the CBMs between India and Pakistan have strengthened people to people contact, improved trade relations and promoted cultural exchanges, they have not succeeded in erasing the bitter memories of hatred, anger, humiliation and hostility accumulated since Partition.

During my recent visit to Pakistan, I found that Kashmir did not figure top in the list of priorities. Officials and policy makers were more concerned about domestic political problems. Pakistan is trying very hard to catch up with India’s economic boom. Its strategic position has allowed to offer itself as a partner to America’s war on terror and to reap benefits from this partnership. The United States has plied Pakistan with billions of dollars of aid as a reward for its assistance.

Pakistan faces a number of challenges, both from within and from without. Iran’s growing influence in the Middle East is spilling over into Central Asia and constitutes a threat to Pakistan. Ethnic insurgency in Baluchistan has only now begun to subside. However, it continues to pose a threat to Pakistan’s strategic depth and its attempt to increase its manoeuvring ability by building a deep-sea port in Gwadar. The problems are compounded by the Taliban factor in Afghanistan. The pro-Pashtun Taliban are natural allies of Pakistan because of their close connections with the Pakistani Pathans. The dominance of the Tajiks and pro-Tajik Persianised Pathans poses a threat to the integrity of the Durand line and hence to Pakistan’s stability.

General Musharraf thus has to perform a balancing act. He mustn’t act too harshly against the Taliban and alienate his own Pathan subjects. On the other hand, he can’t be too friendly to them either and risk incurring America’s wrath. In fact, he has to prove to America that he’s worth supporting. Often, this can backfire on him as the Red mosque incident shows. Heavy-handed action will inevitably be held up as evidence of his autocratic rule. The political changes wrought by the landmark decisions of Supreme Court such as the restoration of the Chief Justice and Nawaz Sharief’s return to the country have created a nightmare scenario for Musharraf.

Despite his waning power and loosening political grip, his four point Kashmir formula is a great opportunity for India to solve the Kashmir problem. General Musharraf’s flexible attitude towards India and his decision to drop the insistence on the UN Resolutions may be difficult for a democratic government to adopt. India was better off with Musharraf in power. The Indian government could deal directly with the centres of Pakistani power such as the army and the ISI, instead of having to talk to populist leaders.

India’s policies in Kashmir, on the other hand, have failed to solve the problem. As long as Kashmir is treated as a law and order problem, there will never be a solution. Excesses by the armed forces have only served to heighten the people’s alienation and fuel pro-independence sentiment. It seems unlikely that India’s policy will change. Although India might be willing to talk autonomy or self-rule, it is unlikely ever to entertain the idea of handing Kashmir over to Pakistan. This means that Pakistan has to ensure that Kashmir is dealt with in such a way that saves face for Pakistan.

Kashmir is too deeply etched in the memories of Pakistanis for them to give it up so easily. Therefore, India will have to show magnanimity and a spirit of compromise if Kashmir is ever to be resolved. Some form of joint supervision of the territories that make up Jammu and Kashmir may not be a bad idea. However, it would be foolish for the Indian leadership to think that it can simply allow matters to proceed without any decisive action in the direction of solving the dispute. Some major steps will have to be taken by both the countries. Otherwise, the Kashmir dispute will carry on as before.


November 2007