Kashmir Affairs - Security & Conflict Analysis of Kashmir

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‘Real Democracy’: Pakistan’s Post-Musharraf Kashmir Policy

Murtaza Shibli
(April 2008)

Resistance Militants - New Hopes?
There is a definite optimistic feeling in the militant resistant camp led by Hizbul Mujahideen, the most powerful group fighting the Indian Army. Syed Salah-ud-din, the Supreme Commander of the group, who was forced to keep a low profile during Musharraf years and even arrested in March 2006 looked jubilant and confident. Less than a week after General Pervez Ashfaq Kayani stated that there was ‘national consensus’ on Kashmir, Hizb chief and head of the United Jihad Council revealed that Pakistan’s support to the Kashmiri resistance was on “as of now”. In an interview with the Indian television channel Times Now, he confirmed that Pakistan is supporting resistance groups and that it cannot stop backing his outfit. Salah-ud-din also dared India saying that “till every inch of ...Kashmir is not freed from India’s control, we will not stop.”⁷³ On 20 March, only a day after Salah-ud-din made the open and candid admission, his organisation Hizbul Mujahideen detonated a massive blast rocking the high security city centre in Srinagar near Jehangir Chowk, one of the highly guarded places in the city with major government offices like Civil Secretariat, Legislative Assembly Complex, the High Court complex, Old Secretariat, headquarters of Crime Branch of police, and a CRPF camp all in an area of few hundred square metres from the site of the blast.⁷⁴ According to the police, the blast was to show that militants have the capability to strike in the heart of city and they wanted to do something spectacular.⁷⁵ Although the blast failed in its intended mission and only ripped through a portion of a flyover, wounding about 20 civilians, it gave an indication about future trajectory of the events.

Realities and Limitations
There is no doubt that the new Pakistani government is a broad-based political coalition that cannot ignore the aspirations of its people on sensitive issues like Kashmir or ‘War on Terror’. But despite the rising rhetoric on Kashmir and the Army’s indication to follow the ‘aspirations of nation’, there is not much the new Pakistani government can do apart from keep the issue on the backburner, as previously suggested by Asif Ali Zardari. The current international and regional geo-political configurations do not afford Pakistan to suspend the ‘peace process’, but it would certainly seek to change the complexion of the engagement and try to elicit more and useful responses from India. However, if it is not able to extract any positive responses from India, Pakistan could effectively slow down the ‘peace process’ leading to its gradual demise while at the same time giving boost to its diplomatic efforts to internationalise the issue. The indications are that the power structure in Pakistan will settle down in the traditional way where Kashmir was dealt by the Army and its intelligence agency ISI at the operational level while the politicians will raise it at the local, regional and international level and affirm their ‘moral, political and diplomatic support’ in tandem with the public emotion attached to the issue.

The recent diplomatic blitzkrieg during the 11^th Summit of the Organisation of Islamic Countries (OIC) held at Dakar, Senegal (14-15 March 2008) also exhibited renewed vigour in the Pakistani establishment to place Kashmir firmly on the international scene. According to reports, the Kashmiri and Pakistani delegation held several high powered meetings with foreign delegates to boost the issue. Speaking at a meeting of the OIC Contact Group on Jammu and Kashmir, the OIC Secretary-General Ekmeleddin Ihsanoglu said “The question of Jammu and Kashmir has been one of the oldest unresolved issues on the agenda of the OIC”, reiterating complete and unflinching support to “the just cause of Kashmir.”⁷⁶ The OIC reaffirmed their long-standing position in support of the Kashmiri people's right to self-determination, the protection of their human rights and settlement of the dispute in accordance with relevant OIC and UN Security Council resolutions. Praising the OIC’s stand on Kashmir, leading Pakistani English daily The Nation observed “It took the Organisation more than a decade to pledge its support for the right to self-determination of the Kashmiris struggling to liberate themselves from the Indian shackles” and enquired about the causes that “constrained the largest grouping of the Muslim countries to keep mum over this issue for so long.”⁷⁷

The new government is already coming under a lot of pressure from various political circles to openly move away from Musharraf government’s policies.On March 27, the fundamentalist Jamat-ud-Dawah, parent organisation of the Laskhar-e-Taiyyaba (LeT) militant group, called upon the Pakistani government to “end ceasefire with India on Line of Control (LoC) and declare Jihad against New Delhi” ⁷⁸ as stated by the central leader of Jamat-ud-Dawah, Professor Abdur Rahman Makki in Muzzaffarabad, after offering funeral prayers in absentia of the LeT commander Muhammad Siddique, alias Abu Hamza who had died in a gun battle in the Kashmir Valley previous week. Criticizing the policies of the Musharraf government in the past eight years as pro-India and pro-American, Makki also alleged that the Kashmir cause has suffered because of Musharraf’s weakened Kashmir policy. A journalist reporting the event commented that the open and defiant congregation “came as a big surprise, indicative of a possible relaxation of restriction on militant organisations.”⁷⁹

However, Pakistan going back to the rhetoric and old policy of Jihad in Kashmir is not viable as it is not in Pakistan’s interest to do so, particularly given the current political atmosphere both in the national and international scene. There is international condemnation against Jihadis and if Pakistan wants to portray itself as a moderate Islamic and nuclear state, as it is claiming to be, then the government of Pakistan would also have to moderate its behaviour. From the business perspective, with the Jihadis currently wreaking havoc in Pakistan and due to the political instability from Musharraf’s recent Emergency Rule, this has led to an increase in capital flight and discouraged foreign investment into the country. Pakistan caught up in needing to both please the international actors as well as gain the support of its own public, may continue to ventilate support for the Jihadis, however, this would not go beyond the realm of public consumption. But, in this Catch-22 situation, Pakistan can do little to feed the momentum of the ‘Peace Process’ with India over Kashmir.

Hence, there is every danger that the Kashmir issue may slowly head for cold freeze, thus leaving the situation vulnerable to the political whims of India and Pakistan that have always been inconsistent. Much depends upon India for it must come out with proposals that can offer tangible movement on the ground. Being a dictator, General Musharraf was insulated against any public criticism and moved ahead with India, departing from his country’s traditional stand. There is a strong feeling in Pakistan and Kashmir that despite the unprecedented flexibility of Pakistan and more than four years of the ‘Peace Process’, Pakistan has not been able to get any concession from India, either for herself or for Kashmiris. This was firmly indicated by Asif Zardari, in his joint press conference with the pro-India Kashmiri leader Mehbooba Mufti, when he reiterated the need to move beyond CBMs and urged for action.⁸⁰

With a huge baggage of problems transferred from the Musharraf regime, the new Pakistani government cannot afford to be seen negotiating with India without any movement on the core issue of Kashmir or gaining some concessions from India. Till then, to keep their public engaged, the rhetoric of the Pakistani leaders on Kashmir could get louder and louder which, as the past experience indicates, could get out of hand at some point of time to precipitate into a crisis or in a worst case scenario lead to a war. But the Pakistani English daily The Post acknowledges that “there is ... little temptation for Pakistan to make a grab for Kashmir, or for India to invade Pakistan, as the fear of nuclear attack makes adventurism less appealing.” and hoping for a bright future, it prophecies that “If the Kashmir dispute is resolved, the people of India and Pakistan can live without trepidation and fear of war.”⁸¹

Notes
1. The News, Pakistan, 24 March 2008.
2. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 25 March 2008.
3. Global Discourse on Kashmir 2006, published by Kashmir Centre EU, 2007, pp.2-3.
4. Ibid. p.6.
5. Daily Times, Pakistan, 25 September 2005.
6. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 22 February 2008.
7. Hindu, India, 8 October 2007.
8. Daily Times, Pakistan, 19 December 2007.
9. Asian Age, India, 16 March 2008.
10. Pakistan announces Kashmir Day preparations, Associated Press of Pakistan, 25 January 2008; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=showfull&id=1201483735&archive=&start_
from=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news> accessed 21 March 2008.
11. Ibid.
12. Daily Times, Pakistan, 28 January 2008.
13. The Nation, Pakistan, 7 February 2008.
14. Ibid.
15. The Nation, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
16. Daily Times, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
17. Ibid.
18. The Nation, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
19. The News, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
20. The Nation, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
21. Kashmir Times, Jammu, 22 December 2007.
22. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 4 January 2008.
23. Greater Kashmir, Srinagar, 11 February 2008.
24. Kashmir Watch, 26 November 2007; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=show full&id=1196134361&archive=&start_ rom=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news> accessed 21 March 2008.
25. Ibid.
26. Report by Hamid Mir, Jang, Pakistan, 21 January 2008.
27. Arab News, Saudi Arabia, 25 March 2008.
28. The Indian Express, India, 27 March 2008.
29. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 19 February 2008.
30. Etela’at, Srinagar, 20 February 2008.
31. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 20 February 2008.
32. Kashmir Watch, 19 February 2008; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=showfull &id=1203470488& archive=&start_ from=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news> accessed on 21 March 2008.
33. Etala’at, Srinagar, Srinagar, 20 February 2008.
34. Kashmir Times, Jammu, 22 February 2008.
35. Ibid.
36. News Agency of Kashmir, 21 February 2008; <www.twocircles.net/2008feb21/omar_says_india_misses _golden_opportunity_resolve_kashmir_ issue.html> accessed on 26 March 2008.
37. Kashmir Times, Jammu, 20 February 2008.
38. Kashmir Times, Jammu, 21 February 2008.
39. Kashmir Watch, 19 February 2007;<www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=showfull&id=1203470488&archive= &start_from=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news> accessed on 25 March 2008.
40. Report by Hamid Mir, Jang, Pakistan, 21 January 2008.
41. Rising Kashmir, 3 March 2008.
42. The Hindu, India, 10 March 2008.
43. Rising Kashmir, 3 March 2008.
44. Ibid.
45. Kashmir Watch, 4 March 2008; <www.kashmirwatch.com/ nshowheadlines.php?subaction=showfull &id=1204668355& archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&var0news= value0news> accessed 25 March 2008.
46. Ibid.
47. Ibid.
48. Kashmir Times, 5 March 2008.
49. Kashmir Times, 4 March 2008.
50. Ibid.
51. Rising Kashmir, 5 March 2008.
52. The Hindu, India, 9 March 2008.
53. COAS on Kashmir, editorial, The Nation, 14 March 2008.
54. Greater Kashmir, Srinagar, 9 March 2008.
55. The News, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
56. The Nation, Pakistan, 6 February 2008.
57. Election Special, Geo TV, Pakistan, 19 February 2008.
58. Pak Tribune, 24 February 2008; <www.paktribune.com/news /index.shtml?197692>accessed on 25 March 2008.
59. The News, Pakistan, 25 March 2008.
60. Aaj Kamran Khan Saath, Geo TV, Pakistan, 25 March 2008.
61. Pak Tribune, 26 March 2008; <www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?198787> accessed 26 March 2008.
62. American Impatience, editorial, The Dawn, 27 March 2008.
63. The News, Pakistan, March 2008.
64. Pak Tribune, 13 March 2008; <www.paktribune.com/news/index.shtml?198414> accessed 26 March 2008.
65. Kashmir Watch, 14 March 2008; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showexclusives.php?subaction=showfull &id=1205496915&archive=&start_from=&ucat=15&var1news=value1news> accessed 25 March 2008.
66. Kayani’s Solidarity with Kashmir Cause, editorial, Pakistan Observer, 14 March 2008.
67. COAS on Kashmir, editorial, The Nation, Pakistan, 14 March 2008.
68. General Kayani’s statement on Kashmir is welcome, editorial, Daily Times, Pakistan 14 March 2008.
69. The News, Pakistan, 24 March 2008.
70. Kashmir Watch, 19 December 2007; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showheadlines.php?subaction=showfull &id=1198109829&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&var0news=value0news> accessed 23 March 2008.
71. The Nation, Pakistan, 7 February 2008.
72. Times of India, 12 March 2006.
73. Kashmir Watch, 19 March 2008; <www.kashmirwatch.com/showheadlines.php?subaction=showfull &id=1205937536&archive=&start_from=&ucat=1&var0news=value0news> accessed 22 March 2008.
74. Greater Kashmir, Srinagar, 20 March 2008.
75. The Tribune, India, 21 March 2008.
76. Arab News, Saudi Arabia, 16 March 2008.
77. The Nation, Pakistan 18 March 2008.
78. Rising Kashmir, Srinagar, 28 March 2008.
79. Ibid.
80. Jang, Pakistan, 29 March 2008; Greater Kashmir, Srinagar, 29 March 2008.
81. Editorial, The Post, Pakistan, 14 March 2008.